Thailand’s labor market is at a critical crossroads, facing powerful demographic headwinds that threaten to reshape its economic future. While the nation boasts vibrant growth, underlying structural issues—driven by an aging population, high informal employment, and falling participation rates—demand immediate attention.

The Demographic Squeeze: Facts on the Ground

The numbers paint a clear picture of the transformation underway:

• Shrinking Ranks: Out of 57 million people of working age, a significant majority (54% as of 2019) were engaged in unstable informal employment, with agriculture still claiming a large share (33%).
• The Inevitable Shift: Projections indicate that the share of the aging population will surge from just 13% in 2020 to an estimated 31% by 2060. This means the core working-age segment could shrink by a staggering 14.4 million people.
• Economic Impact: This demographic imbalance is projected to shave nearly a full percentage point (0.86%) off GDP per capita growth throughout the 2020s.

The Prescription for Resilience: Key Policy Shifts

To mitigate these challenges and secure sustained growth, Thailand’s workforce must adapt strategically. Experts agree that future policy must pivot toward inclusivity and longevity:

• Lifelong Learning: Investing heavily in continuous education to upskill workers and keep capabilities relevant in a changing economy.
• Extending Active Lifespans: Creating pathways and incentives for older adults to remain active contributors to the labor force longer.
• Boosting Female Participation: Removing barriers to increase the proportion of women actively employed.
• Optimizing Migration: Developing smart, efficient strategies for skilled migration to fill critical labor gaps.

In essence, managing the transition of Thailand’s labor market from a young, growing workforce to a mature, experience-rich one will define the nation’s economic success in the coming decades.